Since 2021, 17 states have adopted universal school choice programs that provide public funds to cover the cost of private schooling for most students. Critics worry these programs could draw students and funding away from public schools, while incentivizing private schools to raise tuition as families gain access to publicly funded subsidies. A study by Douglas Harris and Gabriel Olivier at Tulane University examines these concerns, finding that states with universal choice programs have seen increases in both private school enrollment and tuition.
The researchers compared private-school enrollment and tuition data from 11 states that adopted universal choice programs between 2021 and 2024 to data from 34 states that don’t have universal programs, using data from Private School Review, the National Center for Charitable Statistics, and the Private School Survey.
They found that private-school enrollment increased 3 to 4 percent more in universal voucher than in non-universal states. These increases were concentrated in small schools (fewer than 100 students) and in Protestant and other non-Catholic religious schools, suggesting that families may be prioritizing schools’ religious affiliations rather than their academic records.
Tuition also rose more quickly in universal states, increasing roughly 5 to 10 percent more than in states without universal programs. The largest tuition hikes occurred in schools with low baseline tuition (below $9,000 per year) and in small schools (fewer than 100 students). Harris and Olivier note that COVID-19 produced far larger tuition increases nationwide, which likely made schools reluctant to raise prices again, helping explain why universal choice program-related increases are relatively small.
Harris and Olivier conclude that the relatively small enrollment bump indicates that most universal choice dollars are flowing to families already enrolled in private schools rather than drawing new students in. But they also argue that as families become more aware of the programs and become more comfortable switching schools, both enrollment and tuition are likely to grow substantially.