A new study by Stanford University researcher Thomas Dee presents compelling evidence that the escalated immigration enforcement efforts in early 2025 have increased student absenteeism in communities with large immigrant populations.
The study analyzes the impact of the sharp increase in immigration enforcement during January and February 2025, following a shift in federal policy. While schools were not directly targeted, the raids, many of which occurred at workplaces and houses of worship, sparked widespread fear of family separation in immigrant communities, leading parents to keep their children home.
To quantify the effect on student attendance, Dee, a FutureEd research advisor, analyzes three years of daily absence data from five school districts in California’s Central Valley, each serving large immigrant populations and affected by recent raids. He found that student absences during the raids were 22 percent higher than expected based on historical trends. The increase equates to each student missing an additional 1.4 days over half the school year—a significant impact on student learning time.
The effects were most pronounced in districts closest to the largest raids. Although the largest raids spanned only four days, absenteeism remained elevated throughout January and February, suggesting the raids had a lasting chilling effect on school attendance.
Dee also finds that the impact varied by grade level. Compared to high schoolers, absenteeism rates were 31 percent higher for students in kindergarten through 5th grade and 35 percent higher for pre-K students. The study notes this differentiation is likely due to the higher concentration of young children living with undocumented immigrants and that parents of young children may be especially fearful of family separation.
While absenteeism is most harmful for absent students, Dee points out that it ultimately harms academic achievement for all students. Teachers must adjust classroom pacing and instruction in response to uneven attendance and heightened stress among students.
Dee concludes that immigration enforcement, even when not aimed at schools, can disrupt learning and urges policymakers and educators to consider the broader effects of immigration enforcement on students and school communities.