Many factors shape whether young people choose to become teachers. A May 2025 study by Christa Deneault at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas finds that higher local unemployment rates increases the likelihood of adolescents in high-unemployment communities becoming teachers and remaining in the teaching profession.
Deneault tracks 2.6 million Texas students who graduated high school between 1996 and 2010, grouping them into 56 local labor markets. She compares each area’s unemployment rate during a student’s high school years with the student’s later educational and career choices.
She finds that just a one-percentage-point increase in unemployment during high school was associated with a higher likelihood of taking the Texas teacher licensing exam, majoring in education in college, and eventually teaching in a Texas public school. Deneault suggests that limited job opportunities during a student’s teen years can influence long-term career preferences and that teaching may be more appealing because it offers stability. She also finds that higher unemployment leads more future teachers to pursue certifications in areas with chronic shortages, such as English as a second language, suggesting students may be choosing fields perceived as especially secure.
The study also suggests that poor labor markets can improve the quality of future teachers. Students who lived through higher unemployment during their high-school years and later became teachers tended to score higher on math standardized tests, on math sections of the licensing exam, and on measures of their impact on student math learning. These patterns did not appear in reading.
Finally, teachers who experienced higher unemployment during high school tended to stay in the profession for the same amount of time as other teachers, but the probability of remaining at least two years increases when unemployment is high around the time of college graduation.
Deneault cautions policymakers that stricter tenure laws, safety concerns, and accountability pressures can shape perceptions of teaching as a stable job, which can, in turn, shrink the future workforce. She also suggests strengthening high school–level recruitment efforts, such as grow-your-own programs, because students start forming career preferences well before they enter the workforce.