Warnings about declining public school enrollment have grown louder recently—and for good reason. Between fall 2019 and fall 2023, enrollment fell from 50.8 million to 49.5 million, a loss of more than 1.2 million students, or 2.5 percent, in just five years. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the decline, erasing more than a decade of modest national growth. But enrollment was already falling in some grades and communities before the pandemic, driven by factors including falling birth rates and shifting family preferences. And the trend is expected to continue: The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects enrollment will fall below 47 million by 2031.
Yet a FutureEd analysis based on data from NCES, the Center for Disease Control, and other sources, finds that while public school enrollment is declining overall, the trends vary widely by race, grade level, geography, and schools. And that variation offers important insight into how the education landscape is shifting, where the challenges are most acute, and what it means for the future of a public school system designed to serve a larger student population.
What’s Causing the Decline?
The pandemic played a major role in accelerating the decline. Between fall 2019 and 2020 alone, public schools lost more than 1.4 million students. Some families withdrew their children entirely and educated them at home, while others opted for private schools, many of which resumed in-person learning sooner than public schools.
While some families eventually returned, many did not. By fall 2022, an estimated 3.4 percent of all students were homeschooled, compared to 2.8 percent in fall 2019, and advocates say the number continues to rise. Private school enrollment also grew, reaching roughly seven million students in 2021—a 22 percent increase over pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Private enrollment had already been slowly rising before the pandemic, according to some estimates. And newly expanded school choice policies are likely to continue accelerating that shift: Sixteen states now offer or are launching programs that provide public funding for private tuition to any student in the state. While these programs haven’t yet triggered a mass public school exodus, they are likely to reshape some family preferences and expand the supply of private alternatives.
Still, family choices aren’t the sole or likely even primary driver of the decline. The U.S. birth rate has fallen steadily for more than a decade—from 2.1 children per woman in 2007 (replacement level) to just under 1.6 in 2024, the lowest in U.S. history. That means fewer possible children entering the education system each year. Between 2010 and 2020, for example, the number of children under five fell by 1.8 million nationwide, from 20.2 million to 18.4 million. That shrinking pipeline is now reaching classrooms.
Historically, immigration has helped offset declining birth rates, but recent estimates suggest that it may not be enough to sustain enrollment. Recent crackdowns on immigration policy could further reduce student numbers, especially in districts that rely on steady inflows of immigrant families.
And domestic migration is also reshaping enrollment patterns. High housing costs and taxes are prompting families to leave urban areas and high-cost states like California. As a result, some regions are seeing much steeper enrollment losses than others, while others are growing.
Who is Driving the Decline?
The sharpest declines have come among the youngest students. Between fall 2019 and 2023, kindergarten enrollment alone fell by 215,000 students—nearly 6 percent. Elementary grades (K–5) overall lost about 865,000 students (4 percent), while middle school enrollment (grades 6–8) declined by nearly 700,000 students (6 percent). Sixth grade saw the largest drop of any single grade, declining by 7 percent. High school enrollment, by contrast, increased slightly, rising 2 percent, or roughly 345,000 students. Declines in the earliest grades had already begun before the pandemic, while middle and high school enrollment was slowly rising.
The trends also vary by race and ethnicity. White students account for the largest share of the overall decline. Between fall 2019 and 2023, public schools lost nearly 2 million white students—an 8 percent drop. Black student enrollment fell by about 250,000 students, or 3 percent. These declines predated the pandemic but accelerated after it. As of fall 2023, white student enrollment is down 13 percent from its 2014 level.
Meanwhile, Hispanic and Asian enrollments—long drivers of public school growth—continued to grow, but more slowly. Public schools added roughly 540,000 Hispanic students between fall 2019 and 2023 (a 4 percent increase), and about 72,000 Asian students (3 percent). In the five years before the pandemic, both groups were growing at closer to 8 to 9 percent. These slower growth rates are no longer large enough to offset losses among white and Black students.
Where Are Declines Happening?
Enrollment is falling almost everywhere, but not evenly. Between fall 2019 and 2023, 41 states experienced declines, from just 0.3 percent in Louisiana to 6.5 percent in Hawaii. 13 states lost at least 5 percent of their students. California saw the largest numeric decline, with enrollment falling by 325,000 students (5 percent). It was also among the 17 states where enrollment was already falling in the five years preceding the pandemic. In total, 29 states had fewer students in fall 2023 than they did in 2014.
And 23 states are projected to lose at least another 5 percent of their enrollment by 2030, with West Virginia expected to see the steepest proportional decline at 18 percent (45,000 students) and California projected to lose the most students at 500,000 (8 percent).
At the same time, 10 states, mostly in the South and Midwest—and many with no income or sales tax or generally lower tax burdens—saw enrollment growth between fall 2019 and 2023. North Dakota was the only state that avoided any declines during the pandemic.
Within states, some areas have been hit harder than others. Urban districts, which had been growing before the pandemic, saw the steepest post-pandemic declines, losing some 675,000 students, or about 4 percent. Rural, suburban, and town-based districts also decreased in enrollment, though their losses were more modest in comparison, ranging from less than 1 percent to 2 percent.
In California, for example, urban districts accounted for much of the state’s overall decline, losing 180,000 students between fall 2019 and 2023. Los Angeles Unified School District lost 63,000 students (13 percent), the largest numeric drop in the state, while Santa Ana Unified School District experienced a 17 percent decline (about 7,500 students).
Even within districts, the impact varies. In Los Angeles Unified, for example, Cheremoya Avenue Elementary lost 42 percent of its 258 students between fall 2019 and 2023, while Shirley Avenue Elementary declined by just 1 percent. Some schools have even gained students since the pandemic, with enrollments more than doubling in some cases.
But certain types of schools were hit hardest. In Los Angeles Unified, high-poverty schools where at least 75 percent of students qualify for free or reduced-price lunch lost an average of 15 percent of their enrollment, compared to a 10 percent decline at schools with fewer low-income students. Cheremoya Avenue Elementary, one of the schools with the steepest losses, serves a student body that is more than 80 percent low-income. High-poverty schools, which are more likely to be under-resourced and underperforming, might have a harder time retaining and attracting students, especially if they serve a higher population of homeless or immigrant families, who tend to be more transient.
And traditional public schools more generally bore the brunt of enrollment losses, potentially reflecting parents’ desire to leave underperforming public schools for alternative options. While overall public school enrollment has declined, public charter school enrollment has grown from 2.7 million in fall 2014 to 3.4 million in fall 2019 and 3.7 million in fall 2022, the most recent available data.
What Are the Consequences?
Public education systems in the U.S. are designed to operate at a certain scale. School buildings, staffing models, and course offerings all assume a certain level of enrollment. While fewer students might suggest smaller class sizes and more individualized attention, the financial reality is more complicated.
In most states, public school funding is directly tied to enrollment. When students leave, or are never enrolled, schools lose per-pupil state dollars, which typically account for around 45 percent of their budgets. Yet many operating costs, such as school administration, building maintenance and utilities, remain fixed. Federal Covid relief funds temporarily masked the strain, but with those funds now expired, many schools are feeling the pressure.
In theory, fewer students could mean more resources per child, especially in districts where local revenue remains stable. But in practice, much of that funding is absorbed by the inefficiencies of operating under-enrolled schools, making them costly to run. And in high-poverty districts that rely more heavily on state aid, enrollment declines can be especially devastating.
As budgets tighten, students often bear the consequences. Under-resourced schools may cut arts programs, electives, and extracurriculars. They may eliminate staff positions like counselors, librarians, and mental health professionals. With fewer students, schools also need fewer teachers, prompting layoffs that ripple through both schools and local economies. And when enrollment drops sharply, course offerings inevitably shrink. Schools can’t sustain multiple AP classes, foreign languages, or sports teams if buildings are only half full. At one Los Angeles school, for example, students were left with just two electives—weightlifting and bible club—as enrollment declined. The school closed its doors in 2024.
Eventually, under-enrolled schools, like the one in Los Angeles, may be forced to close, which can disrupt students, displace staff, and erode community life. Between 2019 and 2024, for example, West Virginia, where enrollment is down 12 percent from its 2014 level, closed 53 of its more than 600 schools due to declining enrollment. In rural areas, where schools often serve as the heart of a community, closures can be particularly disruptive. Shuttering a small town’s only school might mean the next nearest option is an hour’s bus ride away. In all cases, students must be reassigned to other schools, which brings its own challenges and added costs to the neighboring schools. And when a school closes, it’s not just students who are affected—teachers, janitors, cafeteria workers, and other staff often lose their jobs, deepening the impact on the broader community.
Moving Forward
Today enrollment declines don’t seem like a temporary disruption, and districts are increasingly going to have to deal with this new reality. That doesn’t always mean closing schools, but ignoring the inefficiencies of under-enrolled buildings isn’t sustainable either.
In some cases, closures are necessary and the best option for students, especially when schools are both under-enrolled and underperforming. But closures must be done thoughtfully—with community input, transparency, and strong supports for students.
Still, closures aren’t the only option. Georgetown University’s EdunomicsLab, a K-12 finance research center, has identified ways that keep small schools open, such as sharing staff across campuses and other creative staffing models or leasing out unused space.
There is no one-size-fits-all solution. But as enrollment patterns continue to change, school districts will need to confront these challenges and respond by balancing fiscal responsibility with community needs, all while ensuring that fewer students doesn’t mean fewer opportunities.